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NYSE:HIMS07/13/2023

Spruce Point Management Short Report on HIMS

$8.54
Open on report
$28.09
Close on report
228.92%
% since report
Spruce Point Capital Management
July 2023 Short Thesis ~90 Pages
Short Thesis
Hims & Hers Health $HIMS: Celebrity-Fueled E-Commerce Masquerading as Healthcare

Spruce Point alleges HIMS operates on shaky legal ground, sells commoditized products at massive premiums, and has failed to deliver on virtually every growth initiative pitched to investors since its SPAC IPO.

"HIMS is a marketing gimmick for some very basic, very old services."

โ€” Former HIMS Executive, Spruce Point Interview
Price Target
$5.20โ€“$6.50
Downside Risk
25%โ€“40%
ED Rev. Exposure
>50%
Est. Yr 1 Churn
>50%
Market Cap
$1.6B
Avg. Consult Time
~5 min
AMG Owners
Only 2
Investment Thesis

Hims & Hers Health is an e-commerce company selling commoditized generic medications at massive premiums, structured to generate high-volume prescriptions rather than provide credible healthcare services.

Despite blistering 88% revenue CAGR since 2020, Spruce Point alleges the Company operates its physician network on shaky legal ground vis-ร -vis Corporate Practice of Medicine provisions, faces existential risk from OTC ED alternatives, has failed to deliver on virtually every growth initiative, and misrepresents core business metrics including customer churn and acquisition costs.

Key Allegations
๐Ÿ’Š
OTC ED Threat
FDA-approved OTC ED treatment Eroxon eliminates the need for a HIMS prescription in a category estimated at over 50% of revenue. Core revenue model fundamentally threatened.
๐Ÿฅ
Dubious Care Model
Average consultations estimated at under 5 minutes. Mostly asynchronous, check-the-box affairs. Founding medical director received disciplinary action for "gross negligence" before co-founding troubled Cerebral.
๐Ÿ”—
Supply Chain Exposure
Key pharmacy partner Truepill faces DEA investigation. ITC Compounding forced to shut down by FDA. Curexa received three FDA inspection letters. Fareva hit with EPA violations.
๐Ÿ“‰
Churn Misrepresented
Spruce Point estimates over 50% of customers churn by year 1 and nearly 80% by year 2. HIMS deflects by quoting a "long-term retention rate" that only captures year 2 to year 3 performance.
๐ŸŽฏ
Failed Growth Initiatives
Health system partnerships with no economic substance. Abandoned insurance market pursuit. Enterprise offering vanished. International inflated. Wholesale revenue turned negative. Women's platform poorly rated.
Corporate Practice of Medicine Structure
The "Friendly PC" Structure Spruce Point Believes Is On Shaky Ground
HIMS (NYSE: HIMS)
โ†’
H&H Healthcare Mgmt (MSO)
โ†’
Affiliated Medical Groups
(Bailey โ†’ You Health โ†’ Human Health)
Admin fees flow up ยท "Exclusive medical authority" claimed by AMGs ยท HIMS' own accounting disclosures contradict this claim
2 Physician "Owners"
Williams & Powell manage 600+ docs
โ†’
1099 Contractor Physicians
Part-time, non-exclusive, high turnover
โ†’
Customers / Patients
Primarily young men seeking ED pills
Restrictive stock transfer agreements give HIMS effective control ยท Physicians have zero equity or voting rights
Estimated Customer Retention
Spruce Point Estimated Cumulative Customer Churn
End of Year 1 >50% Churned
>50%
End of Year 2 ~80% Churned
~80%
HIMS "Long-Term Retention" (Yr 2โ†’3 only) ~16% of value
16%
Competitive Landscape
HIMS Premium Pricing vs. Competitor Alternatives
Hims (Premium Priced) Highest
$HIMS
Ro Health Growing Faster
Ro
Cost Plus Drugs (Mark Cuban) Disrupting
Cost Plus
Amazon Pharmacy / Clinic Massive Scale
Amazon
Eroxon (OTC โ€” No Rx Needed) FDA Approved
OTC Threat
Supply Chain Red Flags
Pharmacy Partner Status Key Issue
Truepill (PostMeds) โœ— Under Investigation DEA Order to Show Cause for unlawful dispensing of controlled substances; mass layoffs
ITC Compounding โœ— Facility Shutdown FDA inspection found violations "injurious to health"; forced temporary facility closure
Curexa (EHT Pharmacy) โœ— 3 FDA Letters Below-strength products, sloppy operations, facility structural concerns across three inspections
Fareva โœ— EPA Violations Virginia air violation (Jan 2023) and EPA civil enforcement order (2021) for hazardous waste
Apostrophe (In-house) โœ— Limited Capacity Contracts with both ITC and Truepill; modest internal capabilities; not FDA-registered
Former Employee & Physician Testimony
On Physician Ownership
"I wish...no, none of that. There was no equity in the PC. The PC was basically worthless from a financial perspective. In practicality, the PC owner really doesn't do anything. It's just kind of a figurehead."
โ€” Former HIMS Physician
On HIMS as a Healthcare Company
"There's a fundamental lack of healthcare expertise, like really fundamental deep healthcare expertise. I'd say that three people at HIMS had real healthcare expertise, but no one seemed really interested in any of their input."
โ€” Former HIMS Executive
On Prescription-Driven Metrics
"Those success metrics are around number of prescriptions. Providers exist to prescribe first, which means they're looking for symptoms and then prescribing, which leads to horribly misaligned incentives."
โ€” Former HIMS Executive
On The Target Customer
"Their customer is the 25 to 35 year old that drinks too much on the weekends and still wants to be able to perform. I know that really sounds tongue in cheek, but that is the customer."
โ€” Former HIMS Executive
Failed Growth Promises
Initiative Status Outcome
Health System Partnerships โœ— No Substance Ochsner, Mount Sinai, Privia, Carbon Health deals have no economic substance; marketing puffery
Insurance Market Entry โœ— Abandoned After two years of investor guidance, HIMS acknowledged it will not pursue insured customers
HIMS for Enterprise โœ— Vanished Pitched in SPAC presentation; never mentioned again in subsequent filings or calls
International Expansion โœ— Inflated Tiny UK acquisition grossly overstated; no coherent strategy for different regulatory landscapes
Wholesale / Retail โœ— Declining Despite Target, Walmart, GNC puffery โ€” wholesale revenue growth turned negative
Women's Health (Hers) โœ— Poor Reviews 78% 1-star ratings on Trustpilot vs. 14% for Hims; platform ill-suited for women's conditions
In-house Pharmacy (100%) โœ— Missed Target Promised 100% by YE 2022; only reached ~60% by Q1 2023 with 80% goal for YE 2023
Corporate Entity Timeline
2017โ€“2019
Bailey Health Entities Formed
Original AMG entities incorporated under Bailey Health name. CEO Dudum, President Levy, and Co-founder Spector listed as owners on some entities โ€” a clear CPoM concern.
November 2019
Triple Point Loan Document References HIMS Ownership
Venture debt agreement with Triple Point explicitly states Bailey entities were "owned" by HIMS โ€” contradicting the "physician-owned" CPoM requirement.
November 2020
SEC Forces Enhanced CPoM Disclosure
Following review of S-4 filing, SEC issues comment letter requiring HIMS to dramatically expand its disclosures regarding the Friendly PC structure and CPoM provisions.
January 2021
SPAC IPO via Oaktree Acquisition Corp
HIMS goes public. Had sandbagged projections at 30% YoY growth. Revenue CAGR since 2020 hits 88%, but cash flow remains elusive.
2021โ€“2022
Bailey โ†’ You Health โ†’ Human Health Transition
All Bailey Health entities dissolved and replaced with new You Health and Human Health entities โ€” potentially to address CPoM violations in original structure.
December 2022
DEA Investigation of Truepill Launched
DEA issues Order to Show Cause against Truepill for unlawful dispensing of controlled substances linked to Cerebral. Truepill undergoes mass layoffs.
June 2023
FDA Approves OTC ED Treatment (Eroxon)
Eroxon approved for over-the-counter sale โ€” consumers no longer need a HIMS prescription for ED treatment. Core revenue stream of >50% directly threatened.
Spruce Point Capital Conclusion
E-Commerce, Not Healthcare: A Premium Multiple Built on Shaky Foundations
โ–ผ Short Position

Spruce Point sees 25%โ€“40% downside ($5.20โ€“$6.50) in HIMS shares, with potentially greater losses if state or federal regulators act against its Corporate Practice of Medicine structure. The Company sells commoditized generics at massive premiums, misrepresents churn and acquisition cost metrics, has failed to deliver on every major growth initiative, and faces existential competitive threats from OTC alternatives and large-scale entrants like Amazon Pharmacy.

โš–๏ธ
CPoM Regulatory Action
State or federal enforcement against the Friendly PC structure could fundamentally impair the HIMS business model.
๐Ÿ’Š
OTC ED Competition
FDA-approved OTC ED treatments eliminate the need for HIMS prescriptions in its largest revenue category.
๐Ÿ“‰
Multiple Compression
Premium e-commerce valuation unsustainable as revenue growth decelerates and competitive threats materialize.
๐Ÿ”—
Supply Chain Collapse
DEA investigation of Truepill and FDA violations at ITC/Curexa threaten pharmacy operations comprising ~40% of fulfillment.
๐Ÿท๏ธ
Price Compression
Cost Plus, Amazon, Walmart, and generic alternatives force margin erosion on commoditized products sold at premiums.
๐Ÿ”„
Hidden Churn Crisis
Estimated 80% cumulative churn by year 2 requires unsustainable marketing spend to maintain growth.
Disclaimer: This dashboard summarizes allegations and opinions published by Spruce Point Capital Management LLC in their July 2023 research report on Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS). Spruce Point held a short position in HIMS at the time of publication and stood to benefit from a decline in share price. This is not investment advice. This research presentation expresses Spruce Point's research opinions based upon interpretation of publicly available information. Any investment involves substantial risks, including complete loss of capital. You should do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decision. All figures assumed to be in US Dollars unless specified otherwise.
Spruce Point Management Short Report on HIMS โ€” Activ8 Insights